Freight fraud is a serious and growing problem, but the "up 1,500%" figure is an estimate, not a measured count. The American Trucking Associations has used it in testimony to Congress, and TIA repeats it. The best measured data comes from CargoNet: about $725 million in reported cargo theft losses in 2025, up 60% in one year.
Where does the 1,500% freight fraud number come from?
The American Trucking Associations has told Congress that strategic cargo theft has risen 1,500% since the first quarter of 2021. The Transportation Intermediaries Association repeats the figure, and its fraud report credits it to the National Insurance Crime Bureau. The earliest public source we found was an insurance company's cargo theft specialist quoted in trade press in 2024.
We could not find a published dataset behind the number. That doesn't make it wrong. Strategic theft, meaning theft by deception rather than by breaking into a trailer, really has grown fast. ATA's testimony to the House Judiciary Committee put it this way: strategic theft was 2.2% of cargo theft incidents in 2018 and 25% in 2023.
The honest way to use the 1,500% figure is as what it is: an industry estimate that strategic theft has grown many times over. It is not a count from a government database.
What do the measured cargo theft numbers show?
CargoNet, which tracks reported supply chain crime in the United States and Canada, recorded about $725 million in estimated cargo theft losses in 2025, up 60% from 2024. Total crime events barely moved: 3,594 against 3,607 the year before. Confirmed thefts rose 18% to 2,646, and the average theft grew 36% to $273,990.
So the clearest pattern in the measured data is not "more thefts." It is bigger thefts. The same thing showed up in the second quarter of 2026. CargoNet counted 677 incidents, down 26% from a year earlier, while losses jumped to $304.6 million from $135.7 million. For the full breakdown by commodity and state, see our page on cargo theft statistics.
How much does freight fraud cost?
Estimates run from about $6.6 billion a year in direct theft costs to motor carriers up to $35 billion or more for the whole supply chain, depending on who is counting and what they count. The low end comes from ATRI's survey of trucking companies. The high end comes from a Homeland Security estimate that NICB cites.
- ATRI estimated cargo theft costs the trucking industry as much as $6.6 billion a year, more than $18 million a day. Motor carriers in its survey averaged more than $520,000 in theft losses a year.
- NICB says cargo theft causes estimated losses of up to $35 billion a year. That is the top of a $15 billion to $35 billion range from the Department of Homeland Security.
- TIA says the real cost is likely closer to $100 billion a year once indirect costs are counted.
These numbers don't contradict each other. They measure different things: reported thefts, surveyed company losses, and estimated economic cost.
How common is fraud among freight companies?
Very common, at least among brokers. TIA surveyed its own members and found that 83% had dealt with at least three of eight types of fraud in a six-month period, and 22% reported losing more than $200,000 to fraud. That survey had 59 responses, so treat it as a strong signal from brokers, not a national rate.
On the carrier side, ATA's testimony cited ATRI research finding that 73.5% of cargo stolen from motor carriers was never recovered, and only 2% was fully recovered. For a small fleet, that is the number that matters most. When a load is gone, it is usually gone.
Why do the freight fraud numbers disagree?
Because no single agency counts freight fraud. CargoNet counts thefts reported to it. ATRI and TIA survey their own members. NICB and DHS estimate total economic cost. Each uses a different definition, time period and population, and much fraud is never reported at all. A carrier that is double brokered and goes unpaid rarely shows up in a theft database.
That is also why "fewer incidents, bigger losses" can be true at the same time as "fraud is exploding." Criminals are choosing higher-value loads and using deception that gets around carrier vetting.
What do the numbers mean for a small carrier?
They mean the risk is real, but the defense is mostly habit, not technology. Check the person behind every load, call back on official numbers, keep your paperwork, and report what happens. Our Freight Fraud Awareness Day guide lists the checks, and cyber cargo theft explains how most of these schemes start.
If you have already been scammed, double brokered or left unpaid, you can file a free complaint. We review the evidence and contact the broker for its side. If the case needs a lawyer, the National Transportation Attorney Network has transportation attorneys in every state. For help building the back office that keeps a small fleet in business, see Logistical Forwarding Solutions.